Lowder might have the best pure changeup in the entire draft class, if we separate it from split-changes and splitters, and his other pitches aren’t too shabby either. He’s 92-96 mph with that plus changeup, a pitch that has great deception, power at 86-89, and tailing action that makes it deceptive to hitters on both sides. He’ll use it in any count, even to get ahead. His slider is solid-average, 82-86, with some tilt, more a swing-and-miss pitch against right-handers than one he’ll try to throw for a strike.
The delivery isn’t great, as he starts all the way on the first-base end of the rubber and lands too early, so he cuts himself off and has to come slightly across his body to pitch to his glove side. He also plants his front leg too soon, spinning off the front heel and putting more stress on his arm with the abrupt finish. None of these are reasons not to take him, but they’re things player development will probably want to address sooner rather than later, to make him more effective — he’s got fringy command at best, although he does throw strikes — and keep him healthy. It’s at least No. 3 starter stuff and he could end up a strong No. 2 for most teams with some delivery help, assuming that gives him another half-grade of command.
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