SEC Championship Game roundtable: Kirby Smart vs. Nick Saban with Playoff berth at stake

The Athletic has live coverage of the SEC championship game featuring Alabama vs. Georgia

In advance of the SEC Championship Game, our two on-the-ground experts in Athens and Tuscaloosa, Alabama beat writer Kennington Smith and Georgia senior writer Seth Emerson, discuss the matchup:

Smith: Well, it all comes down to this; and in a lot of ways, we knew it would. Other programs had preseason hype and high expectations (Tennessee, LSU, Texas A&M, etc.), but we’ve arrived at a familiar and perhaps inevitable conclusion: Alabama vs Georgia for the SEC championship, with a College Football Playoff berth on the line.

A lot has changed since the last time these teams met for the 2021 SEC championship. Then, Georgia was ranked No. 1 nationally but had yet to validate itself with a championship, while Alabama was the clear standard bearer and defending national champion. Georgia hasn’t lost since, claiming two national championships with a third one in sight. On the other side, Alabama is looking to complete a full-circle turnaround and prove it is still the SEC’s top program. There has been plenty of respect from the Alabama side this week, beginning with Nick Saban who said, “Georgia, obviously is, to me, the best team in the country.”

Georgia’s lengthy winning streak has been a topic of conversation. The 29-game streak started after a loss to Alabama, and the Tide’s players acknowledge Georgia’s recent dominance but also are motivated to break that streak.

The stakes in this game are high. Usually, there’s security — at least on one side — that a loss in this game doesn’t guarantee elimination from the Playoff, but that may not be true Saturday even for undefeated Georgia. A second loss would kill Alabama’s Playoff hopes. That backdrop sets the stage for a colossal game in Atlanta.

“They have a lot of things going on their side for their team as UGA, and we have a lot of things going for our side that we look forward to going against them,” defensive lineman Justin Eboigbe said. “It’s going to be a great game. Two Goliaths going at it, and we’re going to see who comes out on top.”

What’s the latest buzz in Athens?

Emerson: Outwardly, Georgia players and Kirby Smart don’t sound different than they have all season. They’ve been conditioned to project the right message, as close watchers of Alabama and Saban can understand.

Inwardly, all signs indicate Georgia realizes this may be a one-game season. Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey, Rara Thomas and Tate Ratledge — all starters — sat the Georgia Tech game, and while Smart has said all four would have played if healthy, it sure seems they were rested with this game in mind. Everything I’ve heard so far is there’s no doubt Bowers is playing, and the other three have been able to practice this week.

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So let’s start on that side of the ball. Georgia’s offense has been rolling, explosive in the passing game basically all year, with a deep group of receivers, but lately it has added an explosive running game with a healthy Kendall Milton. The offensive line has been great. But on paper Alabama will be the best defense it has faced all season: The Tide are 19th nationally in yards per play, while Tennessee is next on Georgia’s schedule at 29th. How do you see this part of the matchup?

Dallas Turner (15) and Chris Braswell have stepped up to lead the Tide’s defense. (John David Mercer / USA Today)

Smith: The crux of this game, on both sides, lies in a simple question — who will affect the quarterback the most? Credit Georgia’s offensive line — arguably the best in the country — for keeping Carson Beck clean throughout the season, but it hasn’t faced a pass rush like Alabama’s. That rush features a Bednarik Award finalist in Dallas Turner, along with Chris Braswell, who matches Turner with eight sacks. If Georgia’s offensive line keeps those rushers at bay, it’ll be a long afternoon for the Crimson Tide.

Alabama’s defense has shown vulnerability at times: Texas’ offense beat the Tide early in the season with explosive plays through the air, Jayden Daniels and the LSU offense racked up yards, and Auburn’s rushing attack, including key quarterback runs (which Georgia knows a thing about), established momentum to nearly steal the Iron Bowl.

Stopping the run is an obvious point of emphasis, but the question beyond that is how will Alabama match up with a long list of Georgia weapons. Alabama’s preparing as if the injured Georgia starters will play, and I’m interested to see if the Tide implement more dime package looks or reshuffle the lineup. One particularly effective move would be shifting star cornerback Terrion Arnold to the slot to be closer to Bowers, Dominic Lovett and McConkey and get Arnold closer to the ball. But it all starts with controlling the line of scrimmage and winning that matchup.

You mentioned Georgia’s improved running game. Alabama has averaged more than 230 yards per game on the ground the past month, and a big reason why is the emergence of Jalen Milroe’s designed runs. A two-prong thought — how does Georgia stop a suddenly potent rushing attack along with big-play options like Jermaine Burton (22.7 yards per catch) and Isaiah Bond, the hero of the Iron Bowl?

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Emerson: Georgia will hope to contain the damage. Smart said it was “a given” that Milroe would get his yards, and that goes for Georgia’s entire defense this season: Since Week 3, every opponent has scored at least 10 points. But nobody has scored more than 23. And the Bulldogs have done a good job of adjusting: Six teams have scored touchdowns on their opening drives, Georgia Tech scored on its second possession, and Auburn led 10-0 after the first quarter.

This is not the shutdown Georgia defense of past years, especially against the run. It just picks the right time to play its best and has an elite secondary, meaning that opponents have a tough time playing from behind. And with a high-scoring offense, opponents have had to play from behind.

One key stat to watch: Alabama’s offense has been good at explosive plays: Top 15 nationally in plays of 10, 20, 30 and 40-plus yards. But Georgia’s defense, for all its occasional foibles, is good at stopping explosive plays: top 15 nationally in fewest plays of 10, 20, 30 and 40-plus yards allowed.

But Alabama’s defense ranks 83rd nationally in plays of 30-plus yards given up (26) and 50th in 20-plus yards plays (49). Georgia’s offense, meanwhile, is ninth in plays of 20-plus yards (73). So you’d think Georgia has the advantage there.

It strikes me that in past Alabama-Georgia matchups, the focus usually has been on one side of the ball, but this time both sides are intriguing. But it does feel like Georgia has more margin for error: If its defense struggles but its offense does well, it matches the general pattern of how many of its games have gone this year. If its offense suddenly struggles but the defense plays well, it buys time for Beck, Bowers and company to make plays down the stretch, a la the Auburn game.

And one point: For all the talk about Georgia never having beaten Alabama at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Bulldogs did pull off an epic comeback in that building last year against Ohio State. Different opponent but same surroundings and virtually the same stakes. So yeah, I’m basically saying there are a lot of reasons Georgia should not wilt, even if it’s behind. At the risk of seeming a homer, the closer we get to this game, the more it feels like Georgia will win this game.

That means, clearly, that Alabama will either win 98-0 or in another bizarre and unforeseen way. Right, Kenny? Or did all that Saban-Alabama voodoo over Smart and Georgia run out in Indianapolis two years ago?

Smith: On one end, you have Georgia’s 29-game winning streak, but on the other end, you have Alabama in Atlanta under Saban. Since Alabama lost to Florida in the 2008 SEC championship, Alabama is 16-0 in Atlanta with eight wins over top-10 teams, seven wins over top-five teams and 12 wins by double digits. Nine of those games were in the Georgia Dome, while the other seven in Mercedes-Benz include three SEC championships and obviously, one national championship.

Bizarre and unforeseen occurrences have become a part of the Alabama story this season, but Tide have become comfortable being in uncomfortable situations. The team has completed five second-half comebacks this season: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn. You mentioned that the margin of error favors Georgia, and last week’s Iron Bowl provided a reminder of how things can get off track for Alabama when self-inflicted mistakes are abundant.

Alabama scored touchdowns on its first three drives against the Tigers but was only credited with one due to penalties. What could’ve been 21 points to start was only 10. This season, Alabama has had eight touchdowns taken off the board due to penalties. The total number of penalties is down compared to last season, but the impact when they occur looms large. Multiple touchdowns or big plays coming off the board against Georgia cannot happen if you’re Alabama. Yet, more often than not, Alabama has found a way to win this year.

That fourth-and-31 play to beat Auburn was quintessential Alabama — just when you think you have the Tide beat, they pull out a miraculous play to swing the game. Georgia understands this better than most and — even with what seems to be the better roster on paper and statistics pointing its way — has the onus equally on it to play cleanly and not give Alabama extra opportunities to win.

It’s hard to say Alabama’s voodoo has worn off after just one win. Yes, Georgia bested Alabama on the sport’s biggest stage, by double digits, in the last meeting, but I’m not sure that it totally feels like Georgia has the upper hand in this rivalry yet — not without consecutive wins and in this game particularly. In a way, this has a 2009 SEC Championship Game type of feel when Saban and Smart led Alabama to a win over Florida that ushered in the Alabama era. Could the same happen on Saturday?

I want to leave you with this question before we wrap up: First, where do you view this game — this rivalry — in the grand scheme of Georgia football? Some rivalries are innate — the Iron Bowl, Georgia-Florida, etc., but some are created by circumstances. Alabama and Georgia don’t play annually or even that often, especially in the regular season, but the games usually have high stakes. With Smart’s ascension at Georgia, the magnitude of the game has grown, and it doesn’t look like the arms race between these programs is slowing down any time soon.

Carson Beck is undefeated in his first season as Georgia’s starting quarterback. (Dale Zanine / USA Today)

Emerson: Alabama vs. Georgia is like the 1980’s Lakers vs. Celtics, a product of circumstance and always meeting with so much at stake. But until two years ago, it was like Yankees vs. Red Sox pre-2004, with one team always dominating those important matchups. Georgia hopes that comparison holds up because once the Red Sox got over the hump they won the World Series four times — three more than the Yankees.

We’re also about to enter a new era in the SEC and college football when it would seem to be built to make it harder to three-peat, as Georgia might do, or even be as dominant as Alabama has been under Saban. The regular-season schedule will be harder. Teams will have to win more postseason games to be champions. So it’s only appropriate that these two programs meet in the final SEC championship of this era.

If Georgia wins, it has without question flushed the mental block on this rivalry. As I wrote earlier this week, if Georgia beats Alabama, it will go on to win the national championship because the Crimson Tide are the toughest out remaining for Georgia. But the latter part holds. Alabama could win, and you’ll hear all the narratives return: Saban is still a better coach than Smart, Alabama still lives rent-free in Georgia’s mind, and Alabama only lost two years ago because its two star receivers got hurt.

In that way, the stakes are huge for Georgia. But whatever happens on Saturday, these two teams will still battle for SEC and national supremacy. Program-wise, this feels like a bigger game for Alabama than Georgia. But if Georgia loses and misses the Playoff as a result, there’s no question it will hurt mightily.

Smith: For the reasons you just laid out, I feel this game is equally important on both sides. Georgia has two national championships, but the elephant in the room (no pun intended) still lingers, with a chance to remove it. On the Alabama side, a win and potentially a Playoff bid would elevate this year’s Saban coaching job into one of his best. A loss would mark a three-year run for Alabama without a national championship, something that hasn’t happened under Saban, which is another testament to his greatness.

It’s hard to look at this game as anything other than a quasi-national championship. It’s going to have that level of electricity in the building, that level of talent on the field and the highest combined coaching acumen in the sport. Buckle up whether you’re a fan of Alabama or Georgia or a neutral bystander — this will be the game of the year.

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(Top photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)

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